Paddle Watch: The Week 8 Scoreboard Has a Favouritism Problem — and the Quiet Couple Climbing Fast
Photo: Ade Reeves, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Strictly fans love a leaderboard almost as much as a sequin. But after eight weeks of 2026, the table is telling two stories at once: one about dance ability, and one about how generously the panel is holding up its paddles. So we did the slightly obsessive thing. We logged every score from launch night to Week 8, re-read the judges' comments, and built a simple overmarking index. The rule is straightforward: if the words say 'promising but untidy' and the number says 'nearly perfect', the couple gets a positive mark. If the comments are warmer than the score, they get a negative one. It is not science, but it is a useful filter for the noise.
The index: who is being carried by kindness?
| Couple | Avg score | Comment temperature | Footwork verdict | Overmarking index | | Priya & Marco | 34.1 | Glowing | Strong frame, scrappy transitions | +3.2 | | Jonjo & Freya | 32.8 | Warm | Performance carries footwork | +2.6 | | Mimi & Callum | 31.5 | Mixed | Clean lines, weak floorcraft | +1.4 | | Dev & Ines | 30.9 | Encouraging | Solid basics, low risk | +0.8 | | Gus & Nadia | 29.7 | Measured | Neat, underpowered | -0.6 | | Cerys & Aldo | 28.9 | Critical | Better than marks suggest | -2.0 | | Lena & Raf | 28.4 | Quietly impressed | Best footwork in mid-table | -3.1 |
The positive numbers are not accusations of corruption. They are a measure of generosity. A couple can be overmarked because the judges love their journey, because they are trying something difficult, or because the panel has decided that a wobble is not worth mentioning on a Saturday night. The negative numbers are more interesting. Those are the couples whose comments sound like a promotion while their scores read like a warning.
The ties are doing more damage than the tens
Week 8 produced another cluster of ties, and ties are never neutral. When three couples land on the same score, the leaderboard stops separating a clean waltz from a messy salsa. That cushions the popular mid-table couple and punishes the technician who has spent the week fixing heel leads. It also changes the psychology of the show. A tie tells the audience that the panel cannot decide, which makes the public vote feel more powerful than ever.
This year the ties have been especially kind to Priya & Marco and Jonjo & Freya. Priya & Marco have had moments of real polish, particularly in hold, but their transitions are still snaggy. The comments have noticed; the paddles have mostly ignored it. Jonjo & Freya are a different case. They are not overmarked because they are bad. They are overmarked because their personality is doing the heavy lifting. The judges laugh at the right moments, praise the commitment, and then hand out an eight that feels more like a warm hug than a critique.
The quietly undermarked couple nobody is talking about
Lena & Raf are the ones to watch. Their average is 28.4, which puts them in the dangerous middle of the table, but their comments have been consistently warmer than their numbers. The frame is clean, the footwork is precise, and the musicality is starting to click. The problem is that they are not yet delivering the sort of television moment that makes a casual viewer pick up the phone. Strictly has always rewarded noise as much as nuance, and Lena & Raf are currently a whisper.
Cerys & Aldo are in a similar boat, though their journey has been bumpier. They have been marked down for caution when caution was probably the right call. Their foxtrot in Week 6 was not thrilling, but it was tidy, and tidy deserves more than a six and a half in spirit. The panel has been tougher on them than on couples with bigger errors and bigger personalities. That is not a conspiracy; it is a habit.
The bold 2026 prediction
When the scores tighten in the run to Blackpool and beyond, the judges usually start rewarding precision. The novelty of a comedy salsa wears off. The couple who can actually dance a Viennese waltz without clinging on for dear life starts to look like a finalist. That is why Lena & Raf are the real dark horses of 2026. If the panel begins to mark the footwork rather than the journey, they will climb fast. Do not be surprised if they gatecrash the final while a more loudly praised couple stalls in the semi-final.
The overmarking index is not a crystal ball. It is a reminder that the leaderboard is a story, not a verdict. And this year, the story is pointing away from the obvious favourites and towards the couple who have been quietly getting on with the dancing.
